It appears that speculation surrounding the future shape & role of the traditional GDS within the business travel sector continues on an almost daily basis. Most recently this speculation has been fuelled by the news that American Airlines (AA) are apparently attempting to persuade travel agencies to use direct connects, bypassing the traditional GDS route. The airline wants to cut costs and get closer to customers by tailoring offers, which they feel isn’t possible with existing GDS technology.
But industry experts believe that AA is just the first airline, and there are others including Delta Airlines, ready to announce their own direct connect plans.
When and if other airlines follow this path, the main GDS providers could soon see millions wiped off their revenues and consequently their stock market valuations. The irony here of course is that the GDS technology was originally created for airlines! However, the perception is that the GDS providers have been slow to respond to changing market conditions and it wasn’t until the recent recession shook the market, that they thought of lowering their reliance on air revenues. Now it seems that they are seriously looking at other segments to continue their growth and spread their risk.
It appears at the moment, that hotels seem the best bet, and several of the main GDS providers are working hard to develop their business model to maximise the opportunity presented by hotels.
The reasons for this move to hotels are clear – market forces! According to The Pegasus View Oct 2010, hotel reservations are growing at a healthy pace of +20.7% year-over-year. The growth in ADR at +6.5%, combined with a growing ‘length of stay’ has contributed to the +32.3% revenue growth for the month.
Corporate travel drives a major share on the GDS, and the growth points towards a recovery. Pegasus’ Forward Looking GDS booking forecast for November till March 2011 also paint a picture of growth. Net reservation would grow to 34% y-o-y by March 2011, while ADR is expected to grow by 14% for the same period. This would all lead to net revenue growth of 62%.
Several major GDS providers have introduced their new technology offering for hotels this year. Amadeus’s recently introduced Hotel Platform, Travelport’s new mobile booking solution, and Sabre’s Red platform slated for launch in Q2 of 2011, are all geared to increase hotel participation.
Corporate travel demand is expected to be stronger in the next 6 months, and that has the potential to significantly drive forward the hotel numbers for the GDS providers – if they can succeed in their strategic drive toward Hotels. Further current efforts by GDS to grow the hotel count on their systems would help them grow these numbers further and provide an increasing buffer against the seemingly inexorable rise of online Hotel Reservation Systems.
Now, if only the economy remains stable across US & Europe!
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